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Looks like you decided on the AFE, but I'll answer your post in saying that I used the TRD (really an AEM) CAI that mounts the filter below the right headlight, then vented my foglight cover to force in cold air, and I had fantastic results. According to my SGII, the intake temps dropped from around 100 F to 1-2 degrees F above ambient air temps.
I commuted in all weather for almost 2 years (Dallas actually has 4 seasons, winter is just short, but spring is really rainy) with no problems, and was very nervous about hydro lock until I checked the filter after driving home in a real gully washer and found it to be fine, with only a little dampness on the bottom side. That included 17 miles of 60mph driving behind other cars on the freeway, rain pouting down in sheets. I never worried again.
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