A related thread to "What's Next for the Yaris" (Ethanol)

[Goose]

Rather than hijack the "What's Next for the Yaris" thread, I thought it would be interesting to just start a new one on alternative fuels. There may be some misconceptions regarding the production of some of the new "green" fuels. Misconceptions that are actively encouraged by those who stand to benefit from them.

Be careful what you wish for regarding ethanol - it's not the panacea the American auto industry would like you to think it is. In addition to various trade issues at the moment, the same laws of supply/demand apply to ethanol as they do oil.

Don't get me wrong - I'm for anything that's good for the planet. Sadly, the economics of ethanol aren't much better than oil at the end of the day. Just like oil, the commodity that is used for ethanol (corn) is a finite supply. Although modern farming techniques produce staggering amounts of these commodities, the supply is almost fully committed to feeding billions of mouths... and the number of mouths isn't decreasing. If ethanol is consumed as an alternative to gasoline and its additives, expect prices for corn to skyrocket due to supply/demand. It's already happening.

Hydrogen fuel cells are another noble idea that really won't work on a mass scale. The simple fact with hydrogen is that it requires as much (if not more) units of energy to produce a unit of hydrogen. The end result (if conventional power is used to produce it) is still huge environmental and economic costs. Just because you don't see exhaust coming out the tailpipe doesn't mean that it wasn't pouring out of the hydrogen production plants' smoke stacks. If hydrogen can be produced using "clean" power (solar, wind or something like it), then this problem is negated.

The current ethanol campaign is (in my opinion) an attempt by Detroit to make their outdated gas-guzzlers look "green". Dancing young folks tossing yellow t-shirts in ads won't change the fact that 18MPG trucks (for example) consume far too much fuel - whatever that fuel is.

I just wanted to throw these opinions/info out to the group. Please be assured that I'm not trying to be argumentative with those who like the idea of clean fuels for our cars. Frankly, I think the reason that you don't see import cars jumping on the ethanol bandwagon is that they realize that this isn't the future. I dunno - maybe methane gas, based on naturally decaying organic material (biomass)?

Kinda heavy subject, but interesting nonetheless. Mods, please feel free to move this to a different forum.

[Idjiit]

Originally Posted by Goose

Hydrogen fuel cells are another noble idea that really won't work on a mass scale. The simple fact with hydrogen is that it requires as much (if not more) units of energy to produce a unit of hydrogen. The end result (if conventional power is used to produce it) is still huge environmental and economic costs. Just because you don't see exhaust coming out the tailpipe doesn't mean that it wasn't pouring out of the hydrogen production plants' smoke stacks. If hydrogen can be produced using "clean" power (solar, wind or something like it), then this problem is negated.

You're not wrong about the challenges and how it would work within our current coal-and-deisel driven energy market, but long term it's the most feasible replacement. For it to work, the energy market will have to shift away from fossil fuels - but that's inevitable anyway, since all of that stuff will run out. Ideally they'd be replaced by solar, wind, geothermic or hydro power (among others) but I think the unfortunate fact is that nuclear power is going to have to play a large part - which means we need to improve on the technologies we currently have to make them safer and more environmentally friendly.

However, the good thing about hydrogen is that it's something that people can make themselves. Give someone a power source and water and they can make hydrogen. This means that people can potentially create their own Hydrogen from solar panels on their house, etc. This means that you're not wasting fuel by transporting fuel. You completely eliminate the middle man.

Originally Posted by Goose

The current ethanol campaign is (in my opinion) an attempt by Detroit to make their outdated gas-guzzlers look "green". Dancing young folks tossing yellow t-shirts in ads won't change the fact that 18MPG trucks (for example) consume far too much fuel - whatever that fuel is.

I think you're absolutely right. Basically the big three are fucked because Toyota and Honda developed feasible Hybrid systems before they could. So now they're pushing E85 even though it's not a sustainable energy source (there simply isn't enough land in the US to produce the level of energy needed to replace petroleum, and that sort of farming is environmentally unsound to begin with) and most people cannot actually get E85 (the closest station to me is almost 2 hours away). As usual they're pissing and moaning that the Japanese are getting preferential treatment because they've got the balls to be progressive. Tough shit, morons.

With that said, E85 will most likely play an important role in the transition from a gasoline-based network to hydrogen - so I would certainly encourage all car companies to build flex-fuel vehicles. But at the same time we need to change American culture so we start valuing conservation in general. An 8MPG truck burning anything is fucking stupid. We need to give up the big-assed cars everyone's been convinced they need and realize there's some cool in being light, nimble and fuel efficient instead of just "bigger than everyone else".

[Goose]

Well said, Idjiit. I too would like for the average American to un-learn the idea that "bigger is better".

[hhcchen]

always need to think first thing first...
bush already said, american is addictive to foreign oil...
although most things he said you might not agree...
this is becoming a crisis that we are too dependant on foreign oil...
any fluctuation of the oil price can ruin our economy immediately...
so anything we can do to release our dependance on foreign oil is the priority...
even it's a good idea now if the lawmakers would pass a law making people sell their suvs and all get yaris...
i am sure e85 is not a final answer for fuel... but it definately a quick fix at this time...
same as hybrid, biodiesel, and methane...
by using our existing technologies... any quick fix to release our foreign oil dependance will be a good idea...
by getting rid of our foreign oil dependance... we won't need to give a shit about jewish and islamic people blowing each other up... we can stay away from the middle east...

[Idjiit]

Again, I agree that E85 is one of many things we can do to reduce our dependence, but I think the biggest changes people can make is to assess what their needs are in a vehicle. Do you really need to commute 60 miles to work everyday by yourself in an SUV that gets 12MPG? Or could you car pool with 4 other people who are already going to the same place in a car that gets 24MPG? There's a lot of things people can do to help the situation. Buying a new car isn't even the easiest one.

[stuffy]

i agree with the sentiments here for sure, we n.americans love the big vehicles, and that is the first thing that has to change,
even hybrid suvs still have a big 6 cylinder engine that will be doing most of the work in highway driving,

as far as hydrogen, i have read an initiative to have hydrogen stations that produce their own hydrogen with wind power, (i am trying to find a link), this would eliminate the distribution of the fuel and use a clean energy to produce it

[why?]

The only good thing about E85 is that it is not foreign.

Heck, we don't actually know if oil will really run out. There are more than a few scientists, including the scietist that originally came up with the fossil fuel argument, that think oil is created by the earth's natural processess.

What we really need to do is allow drilling for oil in the USA.

Nuclear power is a great option as well, the modern nuclear plants that are running in Asia and other parts of the world are literally generations better than anything we have in the USA. Those plants have a lesser chance of having a problem then you do of getting struck by lightning.

I also believe alternative energy sources should be used. Already a consumer can put solar panels on top of their house and with a few batteries in the basement, become energy independant.

This, along with wind farms, geothermal power, solar panels, etc, etc, the price of energy can come down.

[Goose]

I agree - oil won't run out for quite a while. The oil supply is tied to the commodity price; a higher price makes extraction viable from sources that were once out of bounds. With the recent price increases, Canadian oil sands are now considered to be a major "new" source of oil. Oil sands have been known for decades, but at lower prices, extraction from this source was not profitable. I have no idea what the impact of this process is (although it's probably like strip-mining - not good), but oil sands are just one example of oil being "found". Oil companies are even getting oil from sources they abandoned years ago as being tapped out. Newer, more expensive, extraction techniques are being used on "dry" wells to wring every bit of oil out of these surces. Sometimes these previously "dry" sources are proving to still have huge amounts of oil. These scenes will be repeated in the future as prices rise... and they will.

To be honest, I don't think anything will change for the foreseeable future. There are too many folks making too much money off of the current setup; they'll never voluntarily back away from the piles of money being made. Higher oil prices will create new opportunities for profit and will lead to new ways of getting the oil out of the ground - by means we can only imagine now. Funny how creative folks can be when there's a profit to be made...

As for me I'll just keep buying my little fuel-efficient cars like the Yaris. I hope to see hydrogen fuel cars on the road soon; if they're reasonably affordable, I'll buy one. I'm afraid, though, that the oil companies are working very hard to maintain the same distribution setup for hydrogen as there is with oil. It would be neat to see truly independant hydrogen supply stations, but there are too many folks making too much money with the current distribution setup. Oil companies won't sit around and watch their business erode -- they're fighting anything that changes the current setup.

I'm not trying to be a downer or defeatist. If nothing else, these posts are meant to be interesting reading and fodder for further conversation. Have fun...

[Idjiit]

It's not a question of oil running out, it's a question of oil getting so expensive that your average person can't afford it. That's already happening, and it will only get worse over the next 20 years.

[stuffy]

and not to mention the destructive nature of burning fossil fuels,
this is especially distressing when you look at the growth in developing countries like china and think of the vast number of cars that will be on the road in that country within the next ten years,

at least they are seriously thinking about alternative fuels, we will have to wait and see what takes hold (ie. beta or vhs?)

[Idjiit]

Yeah, that's the thing. With the flattening of the world and with countries like China and India increasing in wealth and quality of life at a very rapid pace, the strain on the world's oil reserves is going to worsen quite quickly. In India alone, if the billion+ people there suddenly had the same lifestyles as we do in America, we'd run out of oil in a matter of months. The American way of life is simply not sustainable on a global level, and it's going to have to change.

[stuffy]

too true, i read somewhere that to have equity across the planet (and sustainability), we in n. america could only consume 10% of the resources that we currently do,

not sure we are prepared to do that, we are the spoiled brats

[Goose]

All good points, and ones I agree with. I'm afraid that we in the West will have to deal with either reductions in consumption (not a bad thing) or drastic increases in cost of living. Who knows - maybe true frugality will become stylish; not the type that Hollywood pushes. We'll see.

I've been dreading the idea of a Western style of living in China/India for the past ten years. While I would not want to deny these people or anybody else a better life, I shudder it the idea of billions of people all driving Ford Explorers. GM, Ford, et al are all trying like Hell to get their positions established over there, relatively unfettered by any form of environmental control. It's amazing the brand cachet that Buick has in China; who would've guessed?

The developing economies in Asia/India could be a repeat of the former Soviet Block countries of the fifties, environmentally speaking. Loads of companies all making money with nobody watching the human/environmental impact. It's gonna be a big mess to clean up...

[cali yaris]

good article on corn and ethanol issues (sorry for the large file):

http://www.sciontcx.com/images/Yaris/corn-article.bmp

[bnther36]

E85
I will admit that I was one of the first to promote E85 as the fuel of choice but I have come to opinion that this is wrong. I fear that rich Americans will continue to drive their large inefficient SUV's, happy that they are reducing carbon emissions, while people in less fortunate countries watch their food costs rise. Thinking long term as our global population continues to 'snowball' using a potential food source, directly or indirectly (farm land), as a potential fuel source is a bad idea. Quite frankly, I think this is a road that we should never go down.

Hydrogen fuel cells
I am somewhat skeptical of the fuel cell. I have yet to read anything saying that this currently a practical solution. Perhaps in '15 years' it might be, but right now I do not feel that this is a viable solution. Someone made the comment that each individual would be able to provide their own fuel with hydrogen. That's probably one of the smartest things said yet so far. Give the American people a chance to provide for themselves. It would add a definite stability to economy; however I have my doubts that the government will ever allow this. Ponder the implications to the oil companies. Ponder the implications to our state and local government systems. Here in Michigan we have our fuel taxed. Where would all of the revenue for the roads come from if I was able to fuel my car with solar?

Plug-in hybrid
This is probably my vehicle of choice. Give me a car that can travel 60-80 miles at highway speeds all on a electricity provided by solar or wind and a flexible fuel engine to carry me should I need to go farther. Until they make this car I'll just keep driving the fuel efficient Yaris... because it is in my opinion, it is the best vehicle for the job.

[Yaris Revenge]

Okay, I didn't bother to read that article posted above, so if I state the already-stated, cut me some slack.

From what I've read in the past, the amount of energy needed to convert corn to ethanol is nearly the same as to convert oil to gasoline, so it's not any cheaper to produce. And in the process, the cost of EVERYTHING goes up via supply and demand because corn and corn starch are used for SO many different things. Not to mention, I've read that it actually takes nearly 2x the amount of ethanol to create the same power as gasoline, so you'd need to burn more of it (I know a guy who runs an ethanol-powered stock car that has confirmed this).

Sugar cane converts much more readily to ethanol. Wonder how that works out financially?

Also, whatever happened to the switch grass idea? Switch grass is supposed to yield a 4-1 energy return when converted to ethanol, is indigenous to North America, and is supposed to be very hardy. Unlike corn, the entire plant can be used for ethanol. The President mentioned it in a state of the union address, there was a big media buzz, and then it went dead silent within 2 months. WHAT HAPPENED THERE??? I'm thinking maybe those that stood to gain from corn-based ethanol greased some political palms. Bastards.

Hydrogen is cool and all, but tricky to deal with. It's the most abundant element in the universe, but you always have to strip it off of something else, which requires extra energy to process. And, being the tiniest element, it's hard to trap. That would require all hydrogen-powered cars and hydrogen fueling stations to be meticulously maintained to prevent seepage. I just don't see owners and gas stations keeping up with it.

And there's one major drawback to hydrogen cars. Unless it's a closed-loop rechargeable system, they produce water vapor. Most people would say, "Hey, water vapor is better than carbon dioxide!"

BUZZZZ! Wrong! Do some research, and you'll find that water vapor traps more heat than carbon dioxide. So from a global-warming stance, water vapor is the last thing you want to add to our atmosphere. Here, read about it yourself. And can you imagine the humidity? Ugh.

~YR